#1 April 30, 2014 09:31:00

JMH
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Hi Roger.  Thank you for these interesting suggestions.  I had not considered the scooter options before.  My original thought was to try an electric bicycle, which is more suitable for me.  This is just ‘assisted cycling’ really.  Cycling is becoming more popular in London (especially in the middle of a series of Tube strikes).  


You, and others, have obviously considered this issue well before I started this thread.  (I apologise that I did not find your original discussion).  However, there have been some really interesting exchanges.  Perhaps what is needed is for manufacturers of all types of electric ‘vehicles’, and particularly the cheaper bike/scooter end of the spectrum, to make their products more suitable for ‘home-generators’?  


John





Edited JMH (April 30, 2014 09:31:00)

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#2 May 2, 2014 10:38:00

rogerhoward
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I've found a $3000 quote for battery replacement/fitting; http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=27t=14709 . Bearing in mind the 5-year battery warranty, replacement if need be seems more economic than £70/month “battery hire”, and the thing is expected to last well beyond the warranty period.


Reducing range will occur over the years due to reduced battery performance, but that's something for the high mileage motorists that it might be an issue for.










Economy 10 tariff provides 6.9p/kWh off-peak import between 12am-5am, 1pm-4pm and 8pm-10pm; http://www.pvoutput.org/aggregate.jsp?id=21047&sid=18934&v=2&t=m on approx. 63% off-peak usage, 22% solar usage, and 15% peak-rate usage.
1,900kWh annually is exported, mostly in summer, on approx. 3,200kWh generation. Approx. 4,500kWh/year is imported, mostly for (a) winter and springtime off-peak Storage Heaters, and (b) off-peak hot water Immersion heating (which is “dumb”, i.e. not linked to the solar PV).
PV array is split East-West. Income is from Phase II 21p/kWh Feed-in-Tariff plus smart metered 3.2p/kWh Export Tariff.

Edited rogerhoward (May 2, 2014 10:38:00)

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#3 May 2, 2014 13:42:00

rogerhoward
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Hi SunshineCoaster. Do you know what thin air the Telegraph's ridiculous 52p/mile quoted cost was from 3 years ago? It is indeed a matter of seperating hype from plain economics, and questioning assumptions (including their buying-new assumption).


What is your assumed annual mileage?


Factoring in conservative assumptions of a £2k EV battery replacement on warranty expiry every 5 years, no solar recharging (just 12p/kWh grid from home for 4.1miles/kWh motoring), and the same maintenance/repair and insurance costs as your current 39p/mile Fabia,
does your Total Cost of Ownership speadsheet calculator perchance come out with less than 25p/mile for
(a) a new £15800 Leaf, from ‘My Electric Avenue’, and
(b) a 2 year old £11000 Leaf (for example) ?










Economy 10 tariff provides 6.9p/kWh off-peak import between 12am-5am, 1pm-4pm and 8pm-10pm; http://www.pvoutput.org/aggregate.jsp?id=21047&sid=18934&v=2&t=m on approx. 63% off-peak usage, 22% solar usage, and 15% peak-rate usage.
1,900kWh annually is exported, mostly in summer, on approx. 3,200kWh generation. Approx. 4,500kWh/year is imported, mostly for (a) winter and springtime off-peak Storage Heaters, and (b) off-peak hot water Immersion heating (which is “dumb”, i.e. not linked to the solar PV).
PV array is split East-West. Income is from Phase II 21p/kWh Feed-in-Tariff plus smart metered 3.2p/kWh Export Tariff.

Edited rogerhoward (May 2, 2014 13:42:00)

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#4 May 3, 2014 00:05:00

SunshineCoaster
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Hi RogerHoward. Quotes equivalent to $3000 would certainly encourage more battery-pack buying and less leasing, though UK replacement prices as such are not yet widely published and manufacturers are likely to control regional pricing so as not to undermine their leasing margins? They will surely secure substantial after-sales profits before we get to the stage where replacement battery-packs can be made/certified to a standard and sourced from several alternative suppliers in a similar manner to other parts - such as your present normal 12V car battery for instance,

To maximise available panel energy, especially in the summer, medium/high mileage drivers might ideally look at owning (or leasing) 2 packs, rather than mains/fast charging. One pack ‘intelligently’ charging up (with regard to available excess solar energy, battery life etc.) in the garage, whilst the other is out on the road.  In the thread you quoted though, it mentions tech-experts needing 6.5 hours (at $100/hr) to do the swap, so would not be practical on an almost daily basis!   - unless you live in California and own a Tesla, then it looks easy and comes down to 90 seconds!  see  http://www.teslamotors.com/batteryswap   An impressive presentation by charismatic Elon Musk, conveniently failing to include the time it will take (from noticing you need charge) to find a suitably equipped station instead of any commoner-garden gas station just-down-the-road!  - but a valid argument once that facility is ‘everywhere’.  (as with regular UK charging points, growth takes time)

Now Imagine a mass-produced domestic charger/changer version of the robotics rig Tesla use, that has your ‘smart-charged’ spare ready in one of it's 2 racks, senses confirms your car is correctly positioned, communicates with it to ensure it is immobilised/ready, moves your used-pack from the car to the other rack for charging, transfers the new pack in place and tells you when your car is enabled and ready to drive. We are certainly some way from this happening, yet alone to such rigs being standardised and reasonable priced from multiple suppliers.
Meanwhile it is more profitable to manufacturers for us to get there slowly rather than fast. This ‘fantasy’, is but one example of how things may/not pan out, at an unknown rate, within the period of ownership of your next car.

Re your query on calculations;- assumed annual mileage is 10,000
Your comparison; (a) MyElectricAvenue (trials with subsidised leasing) doesn't seem relavent here. The tech trial filled up quickly (I knew I wasn't a good enough salesperson to get 9 neighbours to sign up!) and the social trial is probably full by now also. A new electric car at your suggested level of £15800, with the usage figures you give (0.244 kWh/mile x 100,000miles x £0.12/kWh = £2,928), would be about 34p/mile, even with lower than present maintenance costs. Insurance would be higher for a car of many times the value of my present one, but that little affects final overall costs.
To "perchance come out with less than 25p/mile“ as you say, would need very different assumptions. I took 10yr depreciation to be 90% of new value,plus the interest that capital would have been making (at say 5%). Even on your £11k example (b), depreciation, lost interest, a few £k for 10yrs of service/MOTs, a couple more £k for 10yrs of wear+tear items(tyre,brakes,wipers), not forgetting one or two battery-replacements at the £2k you suggest, and you soon get near to £25k spent over 10 years - divided by 100k miles is 25p/mile and not easy to come out below that realistically.

I was unable to reconcile your ”new £15800 Leaf“ price with any I could find on-line, at least not to to buy a complete car. It is below the lowest of 9 deals currently listed at nissan.co.uk namely the Visia shown at £16,490, but that is an OTR price assuming you take battery leasing. If you don't lease the battery you don't actually get one with the car!  You have to pay £21,490 to have the battery-pack thrown in to be truely ”On the road"!  Ditto for all models up to the Tekna at £20,400/£25,490 respectively (plus any other optional extras you might add). At least Nissan give you that choice (unlike some manufacturers). Notionally that prices the battery at a steep £5k on all models. If it were readily available at £2k, you'd think buyers would pay the lower price and source the battery-pack from elsewhere? Put these prices back into the sums gets you back the 40p/mile region. This may come down with technology changes, or it may look cheap if fuel prices rise above expectations in the next decade.  e.g. £1.80/litre x 0.14 litre/mile x 100,000 miles = £25,200, being more than the present average price of a new car.





Edited SunshineCoaster (May 3, 2014 00:05:00)

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#5 June 22, 2015 13:25:43

Capetown
From: The Banks Of The River Mole
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rogerhoward
Maybe not, Capetown, for those of us with a charging point - see previous thread on free home vehicle recharging points offer (N.B. You don't have to take the battery hire option with a Leaf, nor do you have to buy a new one. They've been out for 3 years now.)Hmm, how do you reverse the current flow back from the battery then?
And so it came to pass! http://www.nextenergynews.co.uk/news/grids-storage/nissan-to-recycle-electric-vehicle-batteries-for-commercial-energy-storage



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